Updated 27th May - Covering 2nd - 24th June 2025
Mean temperatures are forecast to continue to be above the long-term normal, probably by 0.5 to 1C in most western areas and by nearer 1.5C in inland parts of eastern England and possibly also parts of eastern Scotland.
Averaged nationally, rainfall will probably be close to normal, with wet weather in Week 2 offset by drier weather afterwards, but it is likely to come out drier than normal in northern and eastern Scotland and parts of eastern, especially south-eastern, England, and wetter than normal in some western areas, especially in the south-west.
Sunshine totals are likely to end up above normal for most regions in spite of a cloudy start to the period for some
This week will be predominantly unsettled with low pressure dominant over the north and north-west of Britain for much of the week, and westerly and south-westerly winds will blow frequently. There is potential for it to be windy at times as well. Bands of persistent rain will move from west to east at times, and in between these rain belts will be brighter, showery weather. There is potential for some thundery activity, mainly on the brighter showery days, especially for southern and eastern England. Temperatures will tend to be close to the seasonal norm for western parts of Britain, often with relatively cool days and warm nights, but often above normal by both day and night in eastern Britain.
There is potential for high pressure to build especially across southern parts of Britain towards the end of the week, which means that the weather will probably turn drier and more settled for many towards the end of the week, particularly in England and Wales, though the north and west of Scotland in particular will probably hold onto changeable weather with low pressure systems and fronts not far away. In this scenario temperatures will tend to be near or rather above normal.
Relative to the 1991-2020 long-term normal, temperatures are forecast to be near normal in most western parts of Britain but about 1C above in most eastern counties and potentially nearer 2C above normal along North Sea coasts, where the prevailing west to south-westerlies will fend off the usual sea breezes.
It is forecast to be wetter than normal in most parts of the UK, particularly the west, but the north and east of Scotland may end up drier than average. In eastern England rainfall totals may be rather variable locally due to some thundery downpours, with some places ending up dry.
Sunshine is forecast to be below normal in western Britain, but near to slightly above normal in northern and eastern Scotland and possibly parts of eastern England.
It looks probable that high pressure will move across the British Isles at some point during this week, bringing a spell of dry and warm and, for many, sunny weather. Sunshine amounts will be dependent on the positioning of the high pressure to some extent, as regions that see winds coming in off the sea have potential to be cloudier, but at this time of the year high pressure dominated conditions tend to bring above average sunshine for the majority of the country more often than not. Temperatures are likely to rise as a consequence, probably starting off near or slightly above normal in most areas but with potential for it to turn hot late in the week. Some thundery outbreaks could also develop towards the end of the week, but confidence in this is low.
As a result, in contrast to Week 3, it is expected to be drier than average in most parts of the country. It will also generally be warmer than average, possibly by 2C or more, while sunshine is forecast to be above average in most regions.
Confidence is lower in the weather patterns during this period, but there remains a weak signal for above average pressure across the British Isles - perhaps with a temporary breakdown to more unsettled weather, with potential for thundery activity, early in the period, followed by high pressure becoming more dominant again towards the end of the period. As a result, the probabilities favour warmer, drier and sunnier than average weather overall, but it will probably not be as dry as Week 3 in most parts of the country.
Updated if possible by Steve Wright...Hytheweather.co.uk